The water on the river right now looks prefect...a little high, green in color but has plenty of clarity. These conditions can make for great salmon fly fishing. The high flow keeps the fish pushed to the banks where the bugs are and gives them little time to analyze those big orange foam dries. Some green color to the water has the same effect.
What causes the hatch and when will it happen? The hatch is almost entirely triggered by water temperature. I usually look for the water temperature to hold above 55 degrees for several nights. The temperature graph below shows our current state on the Madison river at Varney Bridge. You can follow this at http://waterdata.usgs.gov/mt/nwis/uv?site_no=06040000. It looks like we are almost there so we should be seeing bugs soon.