Right now I am sitting in my living room looking at Fan Mountain in the Madison range and the peak looks a lot more brown than white, which does not seem like a good thing in March. Below is a map of snowpack levels for different drainages around southwest Montana. I get this from http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/data/water/wcs/gis/maps/mt_swepctnormal_update.pdf and they update it regularly. Basically what it shows is that the drainages currently hold in terms of snow water equivalent as a percentage of a 30 year average. Right now the Madison valley is at 69%...$#@%! What does that mean? Is the river going to have summer closures? Is it going to get too low to float? Are the fish going to die?
Don't panic yet. Most of the water that comes down the upper Madison in the summer comes from Hebgan Lake. we may only have 69% snow water equivalent for the valley but what really matters is how much of it is above the lake. This number is also a current percent of average rather than a year to date percent of average. Meaning that it does not account for all of that snow that fell and then melted off during this crazy warm 60-70 degree March we are having. Anything that melted off already still ended up in the lake held back by one of those dams that everyone seems to hate so much these days. The current lake level is at 83% of full and that is before runoff. we still have 69% of a winter's worth of snow and only need the lake to fill another 18% before it is totally full. (http://www.usbr.gov/gp-bin/arcweb_hebr.pl)
Daily Reservoir Data as of 03/28/2015
Pool Elevation is 6529.5 Feet
Pool Elevation to Fill 5.4 Feet
Reservoir Storage is 320143. Acre-Feet
Reservoir Storage to Fill 66037.6 Acre-Feet
Reservoir Inflow is 888.5 CFS
Reservoir Outflow is 663.1 CFS
Reservoir is 82.9 % Full*
Reservoir Flood Control Pool is filled 0.0 %
Madison River Flow is 663.1 CFS
As for those other low water fears like dying fish, river closures and the Madison getting too low to float in a drift boat or at all...those are not really factors up here between Ennis and Hebgan lake. I am not trying to jinx us and say that it could never happen but I have never seen a warm water closure on the upper Madison river or any significant number of dead fish from hot water. Furthermore, the upper Madison cannot get too low to float. The reason the water does not get too hot and the fish don't all go belly up at once while we are standing on the bank staring at a dry unfloatable river is that there are minimum flow levels for water released from Hebgan dam. As part of their license to operate the dam, the power company is required to maintain
"continuous minimum flow of 600 cfs at USGS Gauge No. 6-388 near the Kirby Ranch"...far from too little to float the river in our drift boats.
Even though the map looks a little scary at first it is really not worth a full on panic for 2015 Madison river fly fishing. However we are probably looking at a pretty light runoff and some seriously good spring fishing around here.
Daily Reservoir Data as of 03/28/2015
Pool Elevation is 6529.5 Feet
Pool Elevation to Fill 5.4 Feet
Reservoir Storage is 320143. Acre-Feet
Reservoir Storage to Fill 66037.6 Acre-Feet
Reservoir Inflow is 888.5 CFS
Reservoir Outflow is 663.1 CFS
Reservoir is 82.9 % Full*
Reservoir Flood Control Pool is filled 0.0 %
Madison River Flow is 663.1 CFS
As for those other low water fears like dying fish, river closures and the Madison getting too low to float in a drift boat or at all...those are not really factors up here between Ennis and Hebgan lake. I am not trying to jinx us and say that it could never happen but I have never seen a warm water closure on the upper Madison river or any significant number of dead fish from hot water. Furthermore, the upper Madison cannot get too low to float. The reason the water does not get too hot and the fish don't all go belly up at once while we are standing on the bank staring at a dry unfloatable river is that there are minimum flow levels for water released from Hebgan dam. As part of their license to operate the dam, the power company is required to maintain
"continuous minimum flow of 600 cfs at USGS Gauge No. 6-388 near the Kirby Ranch"...far from too little to float the river in our drift boats.
Even though the map looks a little scary at first it is really not worth a full on panic for 2015 Madison river fly fishing. However we are probably looking at a pretty light runoff and some seriously good spring fishing around here.
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